After Bitcoin Price Breakout, Pending ETF Decision May Cap Gains

Bitcoin's jump to a 15-day high is encouraging, but caution ahead of the US Securities Exchange Commission's decision on bitcoin exchange-traded funds could limit further gains in the cryptocurrency.

The leading cryptocurrency rose to $6,899 on Bitfinex earlier today - the highest level since Aug. 7 - and is accompanied by a 10 percent drop in the BTC/USD shorts, adding credence to our assessment that BTC has been mimicking the price action observed in the run-up to a major rally that occurred on April 12.

BTC's convincing move above $6,600 marks an upside break of the narrowing price range and signals continuation of the rally from the Aug. 14 low of $5,859.

It is going to be an uphill task for bitcoin as the investors may adopt a cautious stance ahead of the binary event - SEC's ruling on the ETF due in the next 36 hours.

Further, BTC picked up a bid exactly at 1:00 UTC - the time when Bitmex - the world's largest exchange for synthetic shorts - shut down for maintenance, forcing many to question the legitimacy of the price rally.

At press time, BTC is changing hands at $6,670 on Bitfinex - up 3.6 percent on a 24-hour basis.

BTC prices could skyrocket if the SEC approves ProShares bitcoin ETF. On the other hand, the bitcoin market will likely crater if the SEC rejects the ETF or delays the decision.

BTC's rise to $6,899 validates the bullish crossover between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages and the upward sloping RSI. It appears the charts are aligned in favor of further gains in BTC. However, the cryptocurrency has already retraced close to 50 percent of the gains seen today, validating the argument that today's rally is being viewed with skepticism.

The retreat to $6,670 also marks a failure to hold on to gains above the key resistance at $6,870.

View BTC's bullish breakout, though impressive, has so far failed to entice the bulls.